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The Fed’s Crisis Relay and December Rate Cut Expectations

Wonderful introduction:

One person’s happiness may be fake, but the happiness of a group of people can no longer distinguish between true and false. They squandered their youth to their heart's content, wishing they could burn it all away. Their posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The Federal Reserve's Crisis Relay and December Interest Rate Cut Expectations". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In early 2006, when Ben Bernanke succeeded Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve, The Economist magazine published an iconic cover story: Greenspan and Bernanke were handing over a relay, but what the former handed over was not a conventional baton, but a bundle of dynamite sticks ready to explode.

This visual metaphor later proved to be an accurate prediction of the crisis - the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 directly detonated global financial market turmoil and triggered the Great Recession cycle of 2008-2009.

"High-risk" transition environment for Powell's successor

By the end of the year, President Trump is expected to finalize the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Powell's term will expire in May next year).

The background of this transfer of power is that the U.S. public debt has entered a clearly unsustainable trajectory, the international trading system is under severe pressure, and both the stock market and private credit market are showing typical bubble characteristics.

What’s even more troublesome is that the next Fed chair will have to face a president who is determined to weaken the Fed’s independence—by placing cronies on the board of governors and continuing to put pressure on maintaining a low interest rate environment.

This makes people wonder whether the Economist will re-enact the classic cover, except that in this relay scene, it is Powell who hands over the stick of dynamite to his successor.

Concerns about economic fundamentals: the double shackles of high debt and foreign investment dependence

Even in a period of stable macroeconomic environment, monetary policy formulation is a tricky proposition; and when the country is burdened with high public debt and high fiscal deficits, the difficulty of this task will increase exponentially - this is what Powell's successorThe "hot potato" that is about to take over.

According to the latest IMF forecast, the U.S. fiscal deficit will stabilize at around 7% of GDP in the foreseeable cycle. This trend will push public debt to climb to 128% of GDP by 2030, which is the same as the debt levels of heavily indebted countries such as Greece and Italy.

The core vitality of the U.S. economy is that its budget deficit and external current account deficit are highly dependent on foreign financing. U.S. Treasury Department data shows that foreign investors currently hold $8.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, accounting for 30% of the total $29 trillion in outstanding Treasuries.

Once foreign investors are unwilling to continue financing the U.S. deficit or renew maturing bonds at current interest rates due to any factors such as a decline in risk appetite and adjustments in yield demands, long-term interest rates may soar off a cliff. This will not only become a fatal resistance to economic recovery, but also trigger violent turbulence in the financial system.

Double test for the successor: Maintaining confidence and responding to bubble bursts

One of the core challenges of the new Fed chairman is to maintain global investors’ confidence in the credit of the United States: it must not only demonstrate its firm stance on controlling inflation, but also dispel market concerns about "inflation diluting debt."

If President Trump continues to weaken the independence of the Federal Reserve and installs "obedient" cronies to dominate the decision-making of the Board of Governors, this goal will be difficult to achieve; in addition, if the government restarts the discussion of "forcibly converting foreign-held Treasury bonds into 100-year zero-coupon bonds", it will undoubtedly further shake the foundation of market confidence.

Another core challenge is to deal with secondary risks after the bubbles in the stock and credit markets burst.

Considering that hidden dangers in U.S. public finances may trigger a jump in long-term interest rates, the probability of the bubble bursting next year is highly realistic.

From a historical perspective, the current cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index is about 40, which is double the long-term average. The risk of a 40% correction in the stock market cannot be ignored; the "stock market valuation/GDP ratio" proposed by Warren Buffett is still 50% higher than the historical peak, and has obvious bubble characteristics.

At the same time, the US$1.5 trillion private credit market has begun to expose risk exposures, and the possibility of local crises spreading to systemic risks cannot be underestimated.

Even in an ideal environment of policy coordination and market stability, it is already extremely difficult for the Fed to respond to credit or stock market crises;

In the context of the Trump administration’s fragmented macroeconomic decision-making and lack of policy coherence, these challenges will be even more disruptive. It may be a blessing for Jerome Powell not to have to take on the Herculean task of stabilizing the economy as various financial bubbles burst.

Preview of the December interest rate meeting: Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, and institutions are actively speaking out to set the tone

Williams’ remarks lock in the high probability of an interest rate cut. As the FOMC meeting on December 9-10 approaches, the Fed’s policy trends have become the focus of the market. "Third Leader" of the Federal Reserve, President of the New York FedWilliams made "dovish" remarks, saying he believed "there is still room for further interest rate cuts in the short term," significantly increasing expectations for an interest rate cut in December.

According to CMEFedWatch data, the market predicted 6 days ago that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December was only 30.5%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 69.5%. After Williams' speech, the probability of an interest rate cut soared from 30% to around 70%. Later on Monday, San Francisco Fed President Daley also made similar dovish remarks in an interview to continue to increase the probability of interest rate cuts. Later, in his speech, Fed Governor Waller expressed that the U.S. labor market is weak and continues to weaken, and inflation is also expected to slow down. He believed that these conditions are sufficient to support the proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting.

Although Waller has always made dovish opinions and is also a popular candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, which has limited boost to the overall Fed interest rate cut expectations in December, the market still pushed CMEFedWatch's interest rate futures for December interest rate cut further to 81%.

Institutional Research and Judgment: Goldman Sachs and Pantheon reached a consensus on interest rate cuts

Goldman Sachs Group Chief Economist Jan Hatzius pointed to the core in the strategy report released today: "Although the release of non-farm payroll data in September is seriously lagging behind, this data has a high probability of locking in the 25 basis point interest rate cut decision at the FOMC meeting on December 9-10."

He further explained to clients: "(New York Fed President Williams's) statement is consistent with Bowen's statement. Chairman Weill's position is highly consistent - the latter almost clearly signaled three interest rate cuts in the September dot plot - and is also in line with the majority view of the 12 voting FOMC members, but it may not win the support of all 19 participating members. "

Goldman Sachs' latest forecast also shows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more in 2026, in March and June, eventually lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25%.

The bank believes that the slowdown in inflation and the cooling of the labor market have provided policymakers with room to further ease monetary policy. The Federal Reserve may maintain a cautious tone in the short term, but the trajectory of core price and wage growth indicates that the policy stance may gradually transition to a neutral level next year.

Pantheon macroeconomics analysts Samuel Thomas and Oliver Allen made a more decisive judgment. They believed that Williams’s statement had “sealed the coffin” for the interest rate cut: “The weight of Mr. Williams’ remarks far exceeds that of other FOMC members. Since he became the chairman of the New York Fed in 2018, both in 2011 and 2020. During his 18 years as president of the San Francisco Fed, he has always been consistent with the majority and has never contradicted the chairman's position. We judge that Mr. Williams will never easily hint at the possibility of an interest rate cut in December without www.xmtraders.communicating in advance with core members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, including Chairman Powell. "

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