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Fed's interest rate cut bets to support gold prices, Hamas says it has not received new ceasefire proposal

Wonderful introduction:

Without the depth of the blue sky, there can be the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, there can be the elegance of the stream; without the fragrance of the wilderness, there can be the emerald green of the grass. There is no seat for bystanders in life, we can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bets to support gold prices, and Hamas said it has not received a new ceasefire proposal yet." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On September 29, spot gold was trading around $3,793/ounce in the Asian market on Monday, and gold prices hit a record $3,790.97/ounce last week. U.S. economic data strengthened the Federal Reserve's bet that it may continue to cut interest rates later this year.

The dollar fell against major currencies last Friday, but the weekly line continued to rise for the second consecutive week, after data released continued to show that the U.S. economy is resilient, which could www.xmtraders.complicate the Fed's efforts to cut interest rates.

Data from the U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce shows that the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve rose by 0.3% month-on-month in August, in line with expectations. "I think it's clear that stronger economic data has hit the Fed's expectations of interest rate cuts, which somewhat narrows the interest rate spread with other countries and drives the dollar up," said John Velis, a BNY American Forex and Macro strategist. "We still think the hedging behavior is quite strong, so we're still seeing a large amount of forward selling of the dollar, even if U.S. assets, especially U.S. stocks, continue to be affected by overseas factors, although to some extent this also fell a bit second last week. But I think it's clear that the U.S. dollar will move with Fed expectations in the short term."

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.33% to 98.17, but rose for the second consecutive week. Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said on Friday that he believes the risks of a sharp rise in unemployment or inflation are limited, allowing the Fed to balance its two goals as further rate cuts are discussed.

Federal Vice Chairman of Regulation said,With a 2% inflation target approaching, she believes that it is necessary to cut interest rates decisively to avoid increasing problems in the job market. The two are the latest decision makers to www.xmtraders.comment on the Fed's decision to start cutting interest rates.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders believe the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next meeting is 89.8%, down from nearly 92% a week ago.

Bank U.S. analysts wrote in an investor report that the dollar has steadily returned to the range, but based on the position situation, the risk of short positions being closed has been reduced, and a key employment report is about to be released. There are few new narratives to support other G10 currencies in the short term.

Asian market

Institutional analysis pointed out that the market generally expects the RBA to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Tuesday. Currently, GDP growth is recovering slowly, and the labor market remains a certain level of tension. RBA Chairman Brock is likely to be vigilant about the continued existence of inflation risks at the press conference, and also implied that the current policy setting is basically unrestrictive. This means that this round of easing cycle is gradually www.xmtraders.coming to an end.

European Market

The latest survey by the European Central Bank shows that eurozone households raised inflation expectations in August. The median expectation for the next 12 months rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in July, while the five-year forecast climbed to 2.2% from 2.1%, the highest level since August 2022. The three-year forecast is stable at 2.5%.

At the same time, the growth outlook remains bleak, with respondents predicting output to shrink by -1.2% in the next 12 months. Worries about employment have also risen slightly, with unemployment expectations rising from 10.6% to 10.7%.

The survey highlights the lingering inflation mentality in households, although the economic outlook remains fragile. For the ECB, if growth continues to stagnate, medium-term price expectations continue to approach or above the target, which may limit the room for further easing.

U.S. market

Canada's GDP grew by 0.2% month-on-month in July, exceeding expectations of 0.1%, the first increase in four months. The rebound was driven mainly by the www.xmtraders.commodity production industry, which rose 0.6% month-on-month after three consecutive months of contraction, with each industry recording an increase.

The output of the service industry is even more sluggish, with only 0.1% month-on-month increase due to the lack of contribution of wholesale trade and real estate, while retail trade declined. Overall, only 11 out of 20 industrial sectors achieved growth.

Looking forward, pre-estimates show that GDP remained flat in August, with growth in wholesale and retail industries offset by declines in resource extraction, manufacturing and transportation industries.

The US August inflation data basically meets expectations. Overall PCE increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than 2.6% in July. Core PCE stabilized at 2.9% year-on-year. This month, the overall and core rose by 0.3% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively, both in line with market expectations.

In addition to inflation, demand also shows greater momentum. Personal income increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than expected by 0.3%. Personal expenditure increased by 0.6% month-on-month, also exceeding the expected 0.5%.

For the Fed, these data reinforce the reasons for continuing but modest easing. Inflation progress remains gradual, while a stronger demand suggests that the economy is not at risk of stagnation.

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