Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--Weekly Forex Forecast – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, NASDAQ 1
- 【XM Group】--XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Following Fed Signals
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/CHF Forecast: US Dollar Races Higher Against Swiss F
- 【XM Forex】--BTC/USD Forecast: Sees a Small Pullback on Wednesday
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--ASX 200 Forecast: Eyes Higher Levels
market news
The dollar index's rise stagnates near resistance level, US non-farm data hits
Wonderful introduction:
Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows, and since ancient times, there have been sorrowful moon and songs. But we never understood it, and we thought everything was just a distant memory. Because there is no real experience, there is no deep feeling in the heart.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The rise of the US dollar index has stalled near the resistance level, and the US non-farm data is www.xmtraders.coming." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Review of market trends this week
This week (September 22-27), the foreign exchange market fluctuated between the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts and the resilience of economic data. Although the US dollar index fell slightly on Friday, the weekly line continued its second-week upward trend, highlighting the relative strength supported by US economic data. The euro broke the three-week continuous rise pattern, and the weekly line turned to decline, reflecting the gradually emerging concerns about the eurozone growth; the dollar was close to the recent high against the Japanese yen, and the weekly line was expected to rise in the fifth week, with the Japanese yen under pressure on the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike signal; the pound fell sharply against the US dollar, hitting a seven-week low, and the market risk aversion sentiment warmed up due to weaker than expected UK data. Overall, the highlight of this week is that U.S. consumer spending and PCE inflation data exceeded expectations, driving the confidence of the dollar bulls to recover. At the same time, global trade uncertainty - especially due to the potential impact of Trump's tariff adjustments - has exacerbated market volatility. The U.S. non-farm employment report will become the focus next week, which may further test the Fed's path expectations.
Review of major currencies
U.S. dollar: This week, the US dollar trend fell first and then rose. Although it fell slightly against a basket of major currencies on Friday, the overall weekly rose by 0.53%, rising for the second consecutive week, indicating that the bulls' momentum was not exhausted. Market traders continued to digest its relatively non-double tone after the Fed's dot chart was released last week. Although the dot chart implies two interest rate cuts in 2025, only one 25 basis point rate cut was expected in 2026, which is different from the market's expectations of three lowers, which to some extent supports the weekly resilience of the US dollar.
Next week (September 29 to October 4), global financial markets will continue to listen to the interpretation of the policy of the Fed Chairman on September interest rate cuts. At the same time, a number of US economic data and non-farm employment data on Friday will be released. The data will cross-verify the opinions of the Fed Chairman and provide guidance for the Fed interest rate agenda meeting at the end of October. The eurozone will also intensively release economic and inflation data to provide a basis for whether the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged, and the RBA, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan have also voiced it. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will elect a new president on the weekend, and the new president will become the new prime minister of Japan. The political propositions of different prime ministers will affect whether the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates unchanged.
1) On Monday (September 29), the euro zone economic index took the lead, and the initial judgment on the quality of economic recovery
European economic data was the first to appear on Monday: the final values of the euro zone economic prosperity index, industrial prosperity index and consumer confidence index will be announced one after another. As a core indicator reflecting the economic vitality of the eurozone, it can break the market's doubts about stagflation in the eurozone.
2) On Tuesday (September 30), Australia announced whether to maintain the 3.6% benchmark interest rate, and the Fed's speech added to volatility
The market will usher in a "Policy and Data Double Focus Day" on Tuesday. Australia will decide whether to keep the 3.6% benchmark interest rate unchanged. As a major resource exporter, interest rates directly affect its exchange rate, thereby affecting the prices of www.xmtraders.commodities and other prices.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the members of the review of the Monetary Policy Meeting in September, which will provide important guidance on whether the Bank of Japan should keep interest rates unchanged.
The subsequent release of China's PMI data will provide key clues for the recovery of global manufacturing.
Eurozone Economic Locomotive Germany will be in the afternoonThe annualized CPI in September and retail sales data in August directly affect the market's analysis of whether there is stagflation in the European economy.
In the United States, Chicago PMI and JOLTs job vacancy data will be followed in August. The latter is the leading indicator of the employment market that the Federal Reserve is concerned about. If there is an unexpected decline, it will strengthen the signal of weak employment market and affect the short-term trend of the US dollar.
In addition, three U.S. local Fed chairmen will make speeches, and the market needs to focus on capturing their differences on the job market and the October interest rate cut. At present, there is obvious controversy within the Federal Reserve about the extent of interest rate cuts, and the policy tendency of officials' remarks will directly disturb market expectations.
3) On Wednesday (October 1), the "small non-agricultural" ADP will be launched, and the euro zone CPI policy clues
On Wednesday, my country will start the National Day holiday. The changes in US API and EIA crude oil inventories will be announced in accordance with the practice. The number of US ADP employment in September, as a "forecast indicator" of non-agricultural data, will affect the market's early bet on non-agricultural data, and will attract market attention.
The euro zone reconciliation CPI data will also be released, which is the core inflation indicator that the ECB is concerned about. After that, the final values of the Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK will be disclosed one after another. Although the influence is not as good as the initial value, we must also be wary of significant deviations from the initial value. Brazil's manufacturing PMI provides a reference for the vitality of manufacturing in emerging markets.
In the evening, the Fed Vice Chairman and two local Fed Chairmans will deliver speeches. As a core policy interpretation occasion after the interest rate cut, his statement on the "employment-inflation" balance will directly guide the market to bet on interest rate bets at the interest rate meeting at the end of October.
4) On Thursday (October 2), the trade account and unemployment benefits were issued at the same time, and the Bank of Canada minutes decrypted the logic of interest rate cuts
On Thursday, the market focused on "global economic and trade and employment clues". Australia's www.xmtraders.commodity and service trade account was released in August. As the core data reflecting its foreign economic and trade activities, its resource export sub-items can reflect the global economic recovery to a certain extent. Afterwards, the euro area unemployment rate data was disclosed that if the unemployment rate rises, it will resonate with economic prosperity indicators, aggravating concerns about the weak economy in the euro area. In the United States, the number of people who requested unemployment benefits this week and last week will reflect the real-time situation of the employment market. www.xmtraders.combined with JOLTs data, the employment market picture can be constructed. If the number of people who have unemployment benefits increases, it will further prove the downward risk of employment. The monthly factory order data of the United States reflects the vitality of manufacturing demand, which has a linkage impact on the US dollar and US stocks. It is worth noting that Canada will release the minutes of the September interest rate meeting in the early morning of the same day, which will elaborate on the details of its decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month. The market can capture the Bank of Canada's judgment on the economic outlook and thus affect the Canadian dollar exchange rate.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at noon. Japan currently has the possibility of a slight interest rate hike, and its statement on inflation and monetary policy will trigger yen fluctuations; Dallas Fed Chairman Logan's speech in the evening may further supplement the Federal Reserve's policyStand clues.
5) On Friday (October 3), the finale of the non-agricultural economy set the Federal Reserve's path, and Japan's unemployment rate added a reference The market ushered in the "data end" of this week. In the morning, Japan announced the August unemployment rate. Evening time: This week's final data - the US non-farm employment population was released in September. In the past two weeks, Fed officials have clearly stated that the employment market is the core policy consideration. This data will provide the most critical clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting at the end of October. If new non-agricultural employment continues to be weak (such as lower than expectations or a sharp downward revision), it will significantly increase the certainty of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in October, suppressing the US dollar and benefiting gold; If the data exceeds expectations, it may reverse the market's interest rate cut expectations and boost the US dollar's strength. The current market differences on the Fed's policy path are concentrated on "the balance between weak employment and inflation stickiness". The performance of non-farm data will directly break this balance and trigger violent fluctuations in asset prices. On Saturday (October 4) Japan's Liberal Democratic Party elections were settled, and the new president induced political and economic expectations On Saturday, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party president elections were officially held. Five candidates - the current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the current Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangmasato, former Minister of Economic Security, Takashi Saemi Takashi, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party Toshisuke, and former Minister of Economic Security, Kobayashi Takashi, and former Minister of Economic Security, Kobayashi Takashi will www.xmtraders.compete. 5 people all participated in the elections last year, among which Takashi Saeno once received the most votes in the first round of voting, while Koizumi Shinjiro currently leads the support of Liberal Democratic Party supporters. According to the rules, candidates must obtain more than half of the total number of 590 votes before they can be elected. If no one exceeds half, they will enter the second round of voting. Since the Liberal Democratic Party holds a minority position in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the new president needs to win the support of the opposition to be elected prime minister. Their policy tendencies (especially monetary policy and economic stimulus package) will attract market attention: Koizumiro and Lin Fangmai support the Bank of Japan's gradual interest rate hike, while Takashi Hayashi's attitude has changed. The policy choice of the new president may affect the yen exchange rate and the trend of Japanese assets. Overall, market fluctuations will focus on "data verification policy" and "political changes will cause chaos", with two-way opportunities coexisting. Investors need to be vigilant about fluctuations caused by data and speeches beyond expectations, and capture certainty in fluctuations The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The rise of the US dollar index stagnates near the resistance level, and the US non-farm data is www.xmtraders.coming heavily" is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support! Only the strong know how to fight; the weak are not qualified to fail, but are born to be conquered. Step up to learn the next article!
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here