Fed Milan supports a 50 basis point cut in a short period of time, and gold prices narrowed and rose waited for U.S. inflation data

Basic news

On Friday (September 26, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,740.57/ounce, and gold prices narrowed their gains on Thursday, after the U.S. initial unemployment claims fell unexpectedly last week, and investors were waiting for key inflation data that could affect the Federal Reserve's next interest rate action; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.25/barrel, oil prices stabilized on Thursday after hitting a seven-week high on the previous trading day. Russia announced that it would restrict fuel exports to the end of the year, but the U.S. released strong economic data, weakening the market's optimism about further interest rate cuts, thus limiting oil price increases.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed slightly on Thursday, with most sectors of the S&P 500 lowering, and economic data exacerbating uncertainty about the Fed's future path to cut interest rates. Data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell by 14,000 in the week ending September 20, to 218,000 after seasonal adjustments. Another data showed that the U.S. economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously estimated, driven by strong consumer spending and corporate investment. In addition, Chicago Fed Chairman Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that he was upset about the rapid rate cut as inflation risks remained.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, the first time since December last year, and hinted that further rate cuts may be made in the future. According to CME's FedWatch tool, investors expect the probability that the Fed will cut another 25 basis points at its October meeting has fallen to 83.4 from about 92% Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch tool.%.

Chase InvestmentCounsel's president in Charlottesville, Virginia, said that the economic data released in the past one or two are somewhat confusing, and in my opinion, it makes people question whether the Fed needs to cut interest rates again and how much it will be.

Investors are paying attention to the upcoming personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which will be released on Friday, a inflation indicator preferred by the Federal Reserve.

Most sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower, but the energy sector rose 0.9% and the technology sector rose 0.03% as Intel shares soared 8.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38% to 45,947.32 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.50% to 6,604.72 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.50% to 22,384.70 points.

Investors are looking forward to the upcoming quarterly results of the www.xmtraders.company, especially in the context of recent US stocks hitting new highs and valuations being considered high.

Rick Meckler, partner at CherryLane Investments, said, "Historically, the valuation is indeed at a high level. One of the positive factors is that the government seems willing to allow large tech www.xmtraders.companies to continue to expand." The highly-watched U.S. monthly employment report will be released next week.

Feders have different opinions on interest rate policy. Milan, the recently appointed Fed director, still advocates speeding up the pace of easing.

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that in future interest rate decisions, the Federal Reserve needs to balance inflationary pressures and weak job markets.

Gold market

Gold prices narrowed their gains on Thursday after the U.S. initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week, and investors were waiting for key inflation data that could affect the Fed's next interest rate action.

Spot gold was $3739.42 per ounce, up 0.1%, and earlier, the settlement price of US gold futures for December delivery was $3771.1, up 0.1%.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, but the labor market has weakened momentum amid weak hiring pace. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic growth rate in the second quarter was faster than previously expected.

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at ZanerMetals, said: "The initial unemployment claims are 218,000, and the expected 235,000 are slightly hawkish and may hit some (interest rate) easing expectations, but not enough to change the overall trend. The biggest short-term risk for gold is that personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data is hotter than expected. If inflation rises unexpectedly, it may boost the dollar and temporarily suppress gold."

The PCE price index, which will be released on Friday, is a inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. A Reuters survey shows that PCE is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.

According toCME's FedWatch tool, the market currently believes that the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in October is 85%, lower than the 90% before the release of employment data.

San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley reiterated his "full support" rate cuts by 25 basis points last week and expressed his openness to further rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a more cautious stance on Tuesday.

Spot silver rose 2.2%, hitting its highest in more than 14 years at $44.87 an ounce. Platinum rose 3.5%, hitting its highest since September 2013 for $1,524.15; palladium rose 3.6% to $1,254.04. Oil market

Oil prices stabilized on Thursday after hitting a seven-week high on the previous trading day. Russia announced it would limit fuel exports to the end of the year, but the United States released strong economic data, weakening market optimism about further rate cuts, thus limiting oil price gains.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.16% to $69.42 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.02% to $64.98.

The two major indicator contracts rose 2.5% on Wednesday, the highest level since August 1, as U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week and market concerns that Ukraine's attack on Russia's energy infrastructure could disrupt supply.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that Russia will partially restrict diesel exports and extend the existing gasoline export ban after Ukrainian drones launched multiple attacks on Russian refining facilities. Oil prices have thus gained further support.

But U.S. economic data limits oil prices to rise. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce's Economic Analysis Bureau on Thursday showed that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8% year-on-month. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said, "The initial market response to this is a sell-off."

Stronger-than-expected economic data may prompt the Fed to be more cautious on interest rate cuts. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, the first rate cut since December last year and hinted that further rate cuts may be cut in the future.

Belor expectations of supply fundamentals also put pressure on oil prices, and the market expects crude oil supply to increase in Iraq and Kurdistan. The Kurdish Autonomous Region Government announced on Thursday that oil exports will resume within 48 hours.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at PhillipNova, said the return of supply in Kurdish regions has rekindled market concerns about oversupply, causing oil prices to pull back near a seven-week high. ”

Foreign exchange market

The US dollar rose against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Thursday, and the U.S. economic data released earlier may limit the Fed's future interest rate cuts.

The U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce reported that the U.S. dollar from April to JuneThe growth rate of GDP was revised up to 3.8%, www.xmtraders.compared with the previous value of 3.3%. Economists surveyed by Reuters did not expect to correct their expectations.

The US dollar rose 0.58% against the yen, hitting its highest since August 1, of 149.77 yen. The euro hit a low of more than two weeks against the dollar, with New York falling 0.66% to $1.1659 late in trading.

Steve Englander, head of global G10 foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said: "People seem to have generally held short positions in the U.S. dollar, and at least from some signs, the size of these positions may exceed market expectations. We expect interest rates to be higher than market expectations in a year, as the latest data shows a significant disconnect between weak labor markets and stronger overall GDP and output data."

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.68%, hitting a two-week high of 98.50. The dollar has risen slightly since the Fed cut interest rates as expected last Monday. Although statements from policymakers, including Chairman Powell, suggest that rate cuts will largely depend on upcoming economic data, traders still expect rates to be cuts in the remaining two Fed meetings this year.

"In fact, one of the problems facing the Fed is how fast you want to cut interest rates. Typically, when the labor market is so weak, you would say it's all because of demand," said Englander, if demand is sluggish, it needs to cut interest rates. In this case, they must keep in mind the possibility of a positive supply shock, which means they should be cautious about rate cuts.

On Thursday, more Fed officials continued to www.xmtraders.comment on last week's rate cut decision. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank president Schmid said interest rate cuts are needed to help ensure the job market remains in good shape. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Goulsby said he is not rushing to take many relaxed policies when inflation is above target and goes wrong.

Milan, who just became the Fed, continues to urge a larger cut in interest rates to prevent a labor market from collapsing.

After the release of US GDP data, the dollar rose against the Swiss franc, after the Swiss National Bank maintained key interest rates at zero as expected. The Swiss National Bank also warned that tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump have bleaked Switzerland's economic outlook for 2026.

The US dollar rose 0.60% against the Swiss franc to 0.8 Swiss franc, reaching its two-week highest. Barclays analysts wrote in an investor report: "In the past few months, the US dollar has experienced unusual bearish events, but has shown extraordinary resilience. This has also become a hot topic for investors."

International News

Imports plummeted. The U.S. www.xmtraders.commodity trade deficit shrank sharply in August

U.S. government data shows that due to a sharp decline in imports, the U.S. www.xmtraders.commodity trade deficit shrank sharply in August. The U.S. Department of www.xmtraders.commerce Census Bureau announced Thursday that the www.xmtraders.commodity trade deficit narrowed by 16.8% to $85.5 billion last month. Economists had previously expected the www.xmtraders.commodity trade deficit to shrink to $95.2 billion. Imports of goods fell by $19.6 billion to $261.6 billion. www.xmtraders.commodity exports fell by $2.3 billion to $176.1 billion. U.S. President Trump's tariffs have caused a sharp fluctuation in www.xmtraders.commodity imports this year, weakening GDP in the first quarter before growth was boosted from April to June. Currently, expectations for the annualized growth rate in the third quarter are converging to around 2.5%. In the second quarter of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate was 3.8%, and the shrinking trade deficit was the main driving force.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States for the first time has dropped to the lowest level since July

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States for the first time has dropped to the lowest level since mid-July, highlighting that www.xmtraders.companies are still reluctant to lay off employees. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. fell by 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20. That's much lower than the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which is estimated at 233,000 people. The decline in initial requests shows that despite the cooling of the labor market, the scale of layoffs is relatively limited. Most businesses choose to retain employees, and even lingering economic uncertainty continues to curb recruitment activities. The average weekly number of initial invoices dropped to 237,500. The number of continuous applicants has not changed much in the previous week, reaching 1.93 million, which is in line with expectations.

Federal Director Milan: It can cut interest rates continuously by 50 basis points in a very short period of time

Federal Director Milan said that if interest rates are not reduced quickly, the Fed will face the risk of economic damage. He believes that the Fed's current policy rate is between 4% and 4.25%, which is highly restrictive and far higher than his estimate of the so-called "neutral" level. Milan said, "That's why it's so important to start adjusting interest rates faster rather than slower." "When monetary policy is on a restrictive position, the economy is more susceptible to downward shocks. In my opinion, there is really no need to take this risk." He said, "My view is that we can cut interest rates continuously by 50 basis points in a very short period of time, and then readjust the monetary policy, and once we reach our goal, we will act more cautiously."

Fizzo: Importing Russian energy is the most economical choice for Slovakia

On September 25, local time, Slovak Prime Minister Fitz said in a questioning session of the National Assembly that Slovakia imports energy raw materials from Russia only account for 2%. Therefore, Slovakia did not make a substantial contribution to war funds through the purchase of Russian energy. What's more, natural gas and oil supply is not an ideological issue for Slovakia, but a geographical reality issue. Fitzo noted that the country has no choice and cannot accept any type of oil at will, as refineries require a lot of money and time to renovate equipment. He believes that Slovakia's interest lies in maintaining imports of energy raw materials from Russia, because it is the most economical option.

U.S. Treasury funds inflows hit the largest in more than five months

According to LSEGLAccording to ipper data, the flow of US funds relative to the previous week in the week ended September 24 is as follows: short-term and medium-term investment-grade bond funds: inflows of US$1.83 billion, and inflows of US$1.86 billion in the previous week. High yield bond funds: $365.3 million outflows, $938.5 million inflows in the previous week. US Treasury Fund: $7.89 billion inflows, $1.8 billion inflows in the previous week. This is the largest since the week of April 9. US Leveraged Loan Fund: $162.4 million inflows, $125.2 million inflows in the previous week. Mortgage-related funds: $205.6 million inflows, $125.9 million inflows in the previous week.

Iranian Vice President: Iran has no intention to give up its nuclear program

On September 25, local time, Iranian Vice President Mohamed Eslami attended the "World Atomic Energy Week" International Forum held in Moscow. Esrami said that Iran's nuclear program is www.xmtraders.completely transparent and Iran has no intention of giving up its nuclear program. According to the agreement already reached, Iran and Russia will jointly build new large-scale nuclear power plants and small-power nuclear power plants. Alexey Likhachev, president of the Russian Atomic Energy Corporation, said that in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, the cooperation between the Russian Atomic Energy Corporation and Iran is expanding, and the www.xmtraders.company continues to build the second and third units of the Bushere Nuclear Power Plant.

Zelensky said that the attack on Russia's energy and military facilities was "directly supported" by Trump

According to the Ukrainian International Telecommunications Agency on the 25th, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview with the media on the same day that Ukrainian attack on Russia's energy infrastructure and military-industrial enterprises has received "directly supported" by US President Trump. "If they (Russia) attack our energy facilities, President Trump supports us to strike back." Zelensky said that Trump also supports Ukrainian attacks on Russian drone factories or missile facilities. Zelensky said he also discussed a new weapon system that "can allow Putin to sit at the negotiating table" during his meeting with Trump on the 23rd, but refused to disclose specific details. Zelensky also said that if Russia and Ukraine were in a standstill, he would propose that Ukraine's Supreme Lada (Parliament) organize elections. He stressed that his goal was to end the war rather than continue as president.

The Israeli Prime Minister ordered an air strike on Yemen on a special plane to the United States

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement today (September 25) saying that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered an air strike on Yemen on a special plane to the United States. Netanyahu also heard reports from Defense Minister Katz and Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir, the statement said.

All living former Fed chairs signed an opinion urging the Supreme Court to protect the Fed's independence

The major economic policymakers of the United States over the past 35 years, including all living former Fed chairmen, urged the Supreme Court to allow Fed Director Cook to continue serving. Amicus submission warns that allowing Cook to be removed while legal challenges are still underway will mark 90 years of CongressThe safeguards established previously to ensure the independence of administrative departments have been damagingly eroded. Research cited by people who signed the opinion shows that central banks do not consider short-term political factors when setting interest rates, which can reduce inflation and reduce long-term interest rates. The brief was signed by former Fed Chairman Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen. The 18 signatures also included presidential advisers to the following Republican and Democratic governments, as well as key economists from different ideologies: former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, former Economic Advisory Council Chairman Glen Hubbard and Greg Manquin.

Domestic News

my country has added 158 million tons of proven reserves of shale oil

Today (September 26), it was learned from China Petroleum that the Daqing Gulong Continental Shale Oil National Demonstration Zone has added 158 million tons of proven reserves of shale oil, providing key support for my country's continental shale oil breakthrough in development.

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