Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Continues to Grind Back and Forth
- 【XM Forex】--USD/ZAR Analysis: Rough Start to Day Amidst More Nervous Sentiment
- 【XM Group】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Hits Ultimate Support, Brief Rebound Likely
- 【XM Market Analysis】--Gold Forecast: Sees Massive Volatility
- 【XM Market Review】--USD/CHF Forecast: Eyes Breakout
market analysis
Canadian dollar weakens after Powell speaks
Wonderful Introduction:
The moon has phases, people have joys and sorrows, whether life has changes, the year has four seasons, after the long night, you can see dawn, suffer pain, you can have happiness, endure the cold winter, you don’t need to lie down, and after all the cold plums, you can look forward to the New Year.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Analysis]: The Canadian dollar weakened after Powell's speech." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The US dollar/Canadian exchange rate has risen for two consecutive trading days, with a short-term increase of about 0.5%, and further strengthened after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech. Although the buying pressure of the US dollar has become more stable, it is still not enough to make the US dollar form a clear trend trajectory. Against this background, the market is still showing a volatile consolidation trend, and there is a lack of clear direction in the short term.
What are the latest updates in the Federal Reserve?
Today, Powell stressed that the Fed is facing a delicate balance between sustained inflation and weak labor markets—the U.S. labor market has begun to show signs of slowing in recent months.
He emphasized that the new round of interest rate cuts cannot be advanced too quickly, otherwise it may trigger inflationary pressure again. At the same time, he also emphasized that the Fed's short-term goal is to maintain the recovery trend of the job market.
The market interprets these remarks as signals that the Fed will not take too aggressive rate cuts. This signal gave the dollar a brief boost, which had been on a downward trend for most of 2025. In fact, the US dollar index (DXY) has stopped its recent downward trend and is currently maintaining above 97 points. This trend reflects that the US dollar has rebounded to a certain extent in recent trading days.
Affected by this, the rebound in US dollar confidence may lead to further weakening of the Canadian dollar in the short term. However, this trend seems to be temporary, especially after the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada both announced interest rate decisions last week. If the Fed continues to implement a steady rate cut cycle and the Bank of Canada does not confirm further rate cuts this year, then the selling pressure that previously dominated the US dollar/Canadian exchange rate (i.e., the pressure of the US dollar falling and the Canadian dollar rising) may be in the medium term.The degree is apparent—especially considering that the currency pair has not yet formed a clear direction of trend.
Is there any new move in Canada?
On September 18, the Canadian Prime Minister held talks with the Mexican President. Before the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) established review in 2026, the two countries agreed to deepen cooperation in the fields of trade and security. The talks mentioned that Canada plans to expand its bilateral trade with Mexico - the bilateral trade volume between the two countries has reached nearly US$56 billion in 2024, and is expected to grow further in the next few years.
These measures are part of Canada's expansion of economic policy diversification, aiming to deal with the pressures that trade relations with the United States may put on its economy. Meanwhile, the Canadian government remains www.xmtraders.committed to implementing the "Buy Canadian Products" policy, which aims to boost domestic production and consumption to alleviate the potential risks that economic growth may face.
Under this background, Canada's current series of measures are aimed at achieving economic diversification and reducing its dependence on the US economy. If these efforts are effective, it is expected to stabilize market confidence in the Canadian dollar and increase the attractiveness of the Canadian dollar as an investment asset. In this case, the USD/CAD exchange rate may face selling pressure again (i.e., the USD falls and the Canadian dollar rises), which will also become a key factor affecting the trend of the currency pair in the next few trading days.
Dollar/Canadian Technical Analysis
Short-term Oscillation Range
Since the end of July, the US dollar/Canadian exchange rate has been in a horizontal oscillation range, with resistance at 1.3924 and support at 1.3735. The recent exchange rate fluctuation is not enough to break through this oscillation pattern, and this range is still the main technical reference indicator in the short term. As long as the exchange rate remains within this range, the market is likely to continue to be in a state of fluctuation and consolidation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to rebound above the neutral level 50, indicating that the average buying momentum has increased over the past 14 trading days. If this trend continues, it may further strengthen the short-term bullish tendency.
Exponential smooth similarity average (MACD)
The MACD bar chart fluctuates near the neutral zero axis, which indicates that the short-term moving average shows a volatile consolidation trend. Unless a clearer directional signal appears, the exchange rate will most likely continue to maintain a horizontal oscillation range.
Key Points
1.3735——Key Support Level: This point coincides with the recent low and the Ichimoku cloud chart (one-picture equilibrium table). If the exchange rate falls below this support level, the bearish trend in recent weeks (i.e., the dollar falls and the Canadian dollar rises) may start again.
1.3924——Real-time resistance level: This point is the recent high. If the exchange rate breaks through this resistance level, it will leave the current horizontal oscillation range, thereby opening up space for a stronger bullish trend.
1.4000——Important resistance level: This point is the simple moving average of 200 periodsThe overlap between the line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is a key point for judging whether the rise may continue in the future. If the exchange rate can continue to break through this level, a stronger upward trend may be confirmed.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Market Analysis]: After Powell's speech, the Canadian dollar weakened", which was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Spring, summer, autumn and winter, every season is a beautiful scenery, and it stays in my heart forever. Leave~~~
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here