UK PMI data is imminent, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 22

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.30%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.32%. The German DAX index fell 0.75%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.01%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.32%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.41%.

2. Market news interpretation

UK PMI data is imminent, and the trend of the pound is attracting attention

⑴ Preliminary PMI data for the manufacturing and service industry in the UK in September will be released on Tuesday (16:30 Beijing time). This data will have an important impact on the short-term trend of the pound. ⑵ Institutional surveys show that the service industry PMI is expected to drop from 54.2 in August to 53.5. As the service industry dominates the UK economy, its data performance will have a key impact on the market. ⑶ If the actual service industry PMI data released is better than expected, the pound may be boosted and strengthened. On the contrary, if the data is less than expected, the pound may face weakening pressure. ⑷In addition, the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to rise slightly from 47.0 in August to 47.1. ⑸ The market will closely monitor these two key economic indicators to assess the health of the UK economy and adjust its expectations for the pound accordingly.

Trump was asked about the US's dual-standard energy policy for Russia

On September 21, local time, US President Trump was on his way back to Washington on Air Force One and was asked by a accompanying reporter about the purchase of Russian energy: the United States asked Europe to stop purchasing Russian oil, on the other hand, it continued to import large amounts of nuclear raw materials uranium and plutonium from Russia. Trump hurriedly pulled Interior Secretary Doug Bergham to "save the scene". Bergham answered the question that was irrelevant, insisting that buying uranium from Russia was "unacceptable", but he couldn't explain why he bought more and more from Russia.

Feder Williams temporarily canceled speech on Monday's BIS webinar

According to a notice released on the official website of the New York Fed, New York Fed Chairman Williams has canceled his participation in the webinar originally scheduled to be co-sponsored by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on Monday morning. Williams' subsequent public speech schedule remains as planned, including events at the New York Fed Thursday morning and public appearances in Rochester and Amsterdam, NY next week. Despite Williams' absence, the schedule of speeches by Fed officials on Monday remained intensive. Mousalem will make a speech at 10:00 Eastern Time (22:00 Beijing time). In addition, Hamak, Balkin and Milan are also planning to make speeches respectively today.

Germany estimates that 1,000 soldiers will need to be treated every day if there is a major conflict with Russia

The German armed forces are developing plans to deal with the treatment needs of 1,000 wounded soldiers that may arise every day when a large-scale conflict broke out between NATO and Russia. German military medical director Hoffman said the number of wounded soldiers in a potential conflict will depend on the intensity of the www.xmtraders.combat and the type of troops participating. "Reality, we're talking about the size of about 1,000 wounded soldiers every day."

The global oil supply pattern changes

⑴ Saudi Arabian crude oil exports fell to a four-month low in July. Data from the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI) showed that the country's daily crude oil exports in July were 5.994 million barrels, down from 6.141 million barrels in June, the lowest level since March 2025. ⑵ Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production fell to 9.201 million barrels in July, www.xmtraders.compared with 9.752 million barrels in June. ⑶ Meanwhile, crude oil processing volume at Saudi refineries increased by about 10%, from 2.703 million barrels in June to 2.978 million barrels in July. ⑷ The International Energy Agency said that global oil supply will accelerate this year and predicts that the oversupply situation may further expand by 2026, as OPEC+ member states will increase production, while the supply from non-member states will also increase. ⑸ OPEC+8 member states reached an agreement to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, lower than the monthly increase of about 555,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower than the monthly increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June and July.

France is planning to impose a wealth tax on the rich

In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, the French government is considering 2% wealth tax on the rich. Bernard Arnold, the richest man in France and chairman of the French luxury goods group LVMH, criticized the French economist Gabriel Zuckermann on the 21st, calling him a "pseudoscholar" who "wanted to destroy the French economy." The proposed wealth tax was called "Zuckerman Tax, intending to impose a wealth tax of at least 2% on individuals holding property of more than 100 million euros (1 euro is approximately US$1.17).

The Japanese general election is approaching, where will the yen go?

⑴ As the presidential election of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party approaches, the market may add a political risk premium to the yen. ⑵ Some analysts say that if one of the main candidates, Takashi Hayashi, wins, the yen may weaken in the early stages, because the market is worried that its dovish stance will delay the next rate hike of the Bank of Japan, but she has not mentioned interest rates recently, showing that her position may change. ⑶ Given that Japan's inflation has been above the central bank's target for three consecutive years, even if Takashi Hayashi is elected, it does not necessarily mean that the possibility of a Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in October will be www.xmtraders.completely eliminated. ⑷ In addition, in 2024 After Shigeru Ishiba won the election, the yen initially strengthened, but it later expressed that he hoped that the Bank of Japan would maintain a loose policy trend, resulting in a yen gain. This shows that the impact of the election results on the yen may not be durable. ⑸ Overall, the yen may remain low due to uncertainty in the short term.

The "Song of Ice and Fire" in the UK's retail industry: fiscal concerns and consumer resilience coexist

⑴ Institutional analysts said that before the Chancellor of the Finance Minister announced the budget on November 26, rumors of possible tax increases in the UK will continue to ferment, bringing long-term uncertainty to the market, especially the retail industry. ⑵ Despite these concerns, UK retail spending may remain elastic due to the increase in household cash flow year-on-year. ⑶ Official data show that UK retail sales increased month-on-month in August 0.5% longer, exceeding market expectations. ⑷ However, analysts believe that before the budget is clear, consumers' purchasing behavior may become more cautious, especially for non-essential consumer goods such as large items. ⑸ This consumer sentiment may have a negative impact on retailers such as Kingfisher, Dunelm and Currys. ⑹ In addition, analysts also pointed out that the impact of the Bank of England's interest rate cut has not yet been fully reflected, and there may be room for further interest rate cuts in the future, and disposable income is expected to continue to grow year-on-year. ⑺ Despite the challenges of the macro environment, investors are still optimistic about www.xmtraders.companies with structural growth and endogenous growth potential.

European and American bond markets are facing tests: inflation data and huge bond issuances are the focus

⑴On Monday, Europe and the United States The dollar-zone government bond yields fell slightly, and investors are closely watching inflation data to be released this week and large-scale bond issuances in many countries. ⑵ Last week, yields generally rose as Germany plans to increase bond issuances and the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England made policy decisions. ⑶ This week, the market focus was on the upcoming U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to be released on Friday, which is an important reference for the Federal Reserve to formulate its next policy. ⑷ Institutions said that although the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has eased the downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, this opened the door for the rise in euro zone interest rates. ⑸ Institutions expect that about 30 billion euros will be issued this week, including 30-year new bonds in the Netherlands and 10-year Treasury bonds in Italy. ⑹ In addition, Italy hasPositive performance in political stability and public finance improvements, its credit rating was upgraded last Friday. ⑺Institutional analysts said that despite optimistic macro data and adequate supply, the convergence of French and Italian government bond yields could keep bearish momentum this week.

www.xmtraders.comparison of Treasury bond yields in multiple countries: The yields of the United States, Britain and Australia lead

⑴ Institutional data show that among the major countries, the yields of the United States, Britain and Australia are generally at a high level. ⑵As of now, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is 4.132%, while the yield on the 10-year U.K. and Australia is 4.704% and 4.279% respectively. ⑶ Judging from the interest rate spread with the US 10-year Treasury bonds, the yield on the UK Treasury bonds is 57.2 basis points higher, while Australia is 14.7 basis points higher. ⑷ In contrast, Japan's 10-year Treasury bond yield was the lowest, at only 1.660%, 247.2 basis points lower than the United States, highlighting its huge difference in monetary policies with Western countries. ⑸ In terms of 2-year Treasury bonds, the UK's yield is as high as 3.981%, 39.9 basis points higher than the United States, while Japan is still at its lowest level, only 0.935%. ⑹It is worth noting that www.xmtraders.compared with Germany, the 2-year Treasury bond yield spreads in the UK, the US and Australia reached 196.1, 156.2 and 138.1 basis points, respectively, showing the attractiveness of their Treasury bonds to investors.

Oil price alert! The Middle East crude oil benchmark price fell to a new weekly low

⑴ On Monday, the spot premium of the Middle East crude oil benchmark continued to fall, and the prices of crude oil in Dubai, Murban and Oman all fell to a new weekly low, reflecting the market's concerns about oversupply are intensifying. ⑵ Institutional data show that the premium of cash Dubai crude oil to swap contracts fell 51 cents to $2.11 a barrel. ⑶ Meanwhile, Asian buyers purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude oil that will arrive in December through tender, indicating that Asian buyers are seeking diversified supply. ⑷ Although some OPEC+ member countries (such as Iraq and Kuwait) are gradually increasing production, with Kuwait's oil production capacity reaching 3.2 million barrels per day, the pressure of market oversupply remains. ⑸ In addition, the Ural crude oil price to India is rising due to attacks on Russian ports and pipelines and the intensification of sanctions risks.

Powell's speech this week, the debate on interest rate cuts may heat up

⑴ This week, several Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and new director Milan, will make intensive speeches, which will accelerate internal debate on whether to cut interest rates again at the meeting from October 28 to 29. ⑵ Although the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, officials need to evaluate relatively little new data. ⑶The only key data available for consideration include the September employment data to be released on October 3 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released on October 15 and 16. ⑷ The Federal Reserve's risk assessment has changed, and concerns over rising unemployment rates have exceeded theInflation concerns, which provide reasons for further rate cuts. ⑸ However, employment growth slowed in September, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 4.3%, coupled with market concerns caused by Trump's tariff remarks, www.xmtraders.complicating the direction of monetary policy. ⑹The Federal Reserve just cut interest rates for the first time since Trump took office last week. The next decision will reveal whether it will start a steadily rate cut cycle or continue to wait and see.

The "happy time" in the euro zone is no longer? The ECB may launch an "emergency interest rate cut"

⑴ Institutional columnist analyzed that although the market generally believes that the ECB has adjusted its policy interest rate to the "ideal" level of 2%, the euro may appreciate significantly due to the Fed's interest rate cut, forcing the ECB to take "emergency interest rate cuts" measures. ⑵Eurozone inflation rate and the ECB policy interest rate are currently at 2%, and long-term inflation expectations are also close to 2%, which seems to be balanced. ⑶ However, the ECB's own inflation forecast shows that inflation rates will be below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027, which has caused some officials to worry about the possible risk of long-term deflation. ⑷ The strengthening of the euro is seen as the most obvious risk of deflation. Although the European Central Bank deputy governor said he was more concerned about the effective exchange rate of the euro against trading partners, data showed that the effective exchange rate of the euro against 41 trading partners had reached a record high. ⑸ The euro has appreciated 13% against the US dollar this year, while the yen and pound have also appreciated 6%-7% against the slurry, and the Swiss franc has risen 10%. ⑹ Institutional analysts pointed out that a strong euro may put pressure on eurozone trade and inflation at a critical moment, especially when China may turn exports to Europe due to tariff rhetoric. ⑺While the ECB does not target exchange rates, the huge fluctuations in the euro may break the “happy state” of its policies, forcing it to reconsider monetary policy.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1775, an increase of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (Euro-USD) price rose strongly on the last trading day, supported by positive signals from the relative strength indicators, using its support for major short-term bullish trends to gain positive momentum, helping it surpass the EMA50's resistance and beyond its negative pressure, and opening the way for its near-term target new resistance levels.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3492, an increase of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, in recent day trading, the (GBPUSD) price continued to fall, and was dominated by the bearish correction wave in the short term. The trading price was lower than EMA50, breaking through the support of the main short-term bullish trend line, and increasing negative pressure when confirming the breakthrough.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3715.07, an increase of 0.82%. Before New York, gold prices soared to the upside in the last trading day after breaking through the key resistance of $3,700, hitting record highs due to the continued positive pressure it has generated above the EMA50 and the relative strength indicators at the overbought level, although the relative strength indicators at the overbought level remained stable to show the dominance of purchasing power in the price movement.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 43.429, an increase of 0.93%. Before New York, the (silver) price surged on the last trading day, breaking through the key resistance level of $42.90, representing our previously forecasted recommended target, supported by its continued trading above the EMA50 and its main bullish trend in short-term trading, as well as its support trendline along the track, on the other hand, we noticed negative overlap signals on the relative strength indicator after reaching overbought levels, which could reduce the upcoming earnings.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 61.880, a drop of 0.82%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose on the last trading day, trying to surpass some of the previous losses and unload their obvious oversold conditions based on relative strength indicators, especially with the positive signals that appear there, providing limited room for the rise.

4. Institutional view

Citi: Alibaba's stock price may be supported by multiple factors and given a "buy" rating

Citi analysts pointed out in a research report that Alibaba's stock price in the near future may be supported by multiple factors. They said that Alibaba's recent in-store group buying promotions "coinciding with the upcoming peak travel season and are expected to guide users to shop or restaurants for consumption/dine." In addition, investors are also paying close attention to Alibaba Cloud's Yunqi Conference later this week, which may have a positive driving effect on Alibaba. Citi gave Alibaba a "buy" rating, with its target price of USD 187.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: UK PMI data is imminent, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on September 22" was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope to trade for youHelpful! Thanks for the support!

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