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GBP/USD fell slightly on UK fiscal concerns and Fed interest rates lower demand for GBP

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: The pound/dollar fell slightly due to British fiscal concerns and the reduction of Fed interest rates." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Tuesday, the pound (GBP) weakened against the US dollar (USD), and the market focused on news about trade trends, which affected the broader economic outlook.

For GBP/USD, UK fiscal concerns and the risk of economic weakness have brought prices closer to 1.3550 at press time.

Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell advocated decisions based on data and did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, the Fed took a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals. The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now slim, and the market increasingly sees September as a more likely starting point.

According to the CME Fed's observation tool, the market priced the probability of a 25 basis point cut in July at 4.7%, down from 20.7% last week. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now 62.8%, down from 73.2% last week.

In the UK, fiscal risks have exacerbated the weakness of the pound. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) released its fiscal risk and sustainability report on Tuesday, sending a grim warning about the country's long-term financial outlook.

OBR Chairman Richard Hughes warned that current UK fiscal policy is unsustainable. He foresees that if not changed, government debt will increase to about 270% of GDP in early 2070, while today's level is below 100%.

The long-term debt path is largely due to rising costs associated with the national pension triple lockdown, expected climate-related expenses (e.g., losses from net zero transitions and extreme weather), and population pressure. stopSi pointed out that the national pension cost may rise from about 5% in 2070 to 7% GDP, further increasing pressure on public finance.

In addition, U.S. President Trump's hike in tariffs has also caused panic in the market, fueling risk aversion and uncertainty among investors.

In response to these developments, GBP/USD fell below the 20-day simple moving average of 1.3596, which currently provides resistance.

The current price trend is still within the rising channel of the daily chart, which has guided the pair since May.

As the price approaches the 50-day simple moving average of 1.3480, further downward pressure is emerging. A break below this level will signal a deeper bearish correction, with the target pointing to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3390.

The recent failure to recover the July 1 high of 1.3789 is now confirmed at the short-term top.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 49, indicating that the bullish momentum has weakened, but has not yet entered the oversold area.

Average true amplitude (ATR) shows a contraction of volatility, which may indicate an imminent breakthrough in either direction.

The GBP/USD is facing the risk of further decline, and pay attention to whether buyers can defend the 50-day simple moving average. If it cannot be clearly maintained above 1.3480, a deeper bearish correction will be confirmed, and if it rebounds above 1.3595, bullish momentum will be restored.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The pound/USD fell slightly due to British fiscal concerns and the reduction of Fed interest rates in demand for pound". It was carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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GBP/USD fell slightly on UK fiscal concerns and Fed interest rates lower demand for GBP

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market analysis

GBP/USD fell slightly on UK fiscal concerns and Fed interest rates lower demand for GBP

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason