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Gold is expected to fall in the mid-line after breaking the weekly support, Europe and the United States pay attention to high pressure

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold is expected to fall in the medium term after breaking the weekly support, and Europe and the United States pay attention to high-level suppression." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

The gold market has been affected by the interweaving of multiple factors recently. In terms of geopoliticality, Trump will discuss a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict with Netanyahu. If a 60-day ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement are reached, the demand for gold safe-haven is weakened in the short term, but geopoliticality is www.xmtraders.complex and changeable, and demand will rebound when the conflict recurs. In terms of tariffs, the US Treasury Secretary said it would change to restart countries that did not reach an agreement on August 1, and market concerns have eased. In terms of US fiscal policy, the large-scale tax cut bill was passed, and the sharp increase in debt expectations caused market concerns about fiscal sustainability. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy orientation has become the key, and the market's expectations for its interest rate cuts have differentiated. Although the economic data is strong, it is still expected that there may be two interest rate cuts in 2025. Rate cuts have a double impact on gold, which may trigger volatility in the short term and provide support due to the tendency to easing in the long term. Overall, opportunities and challenges coexist, and geopolitics, fiscal policy, tariffs and monetary policy work together. Investors need to pay close attention to trade negotiations, minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and other dynamics to seize investment opportunities.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend last Friday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 97.117 on the day, and fell to 96.831 at the lowest, and finally closed at 96.98. Looking back at the market performance last Friday, the price fell first during the early trading session, and then it reached four-hour support before the European session and stopped fluctuating. Due to the impact of the overall market volatility during the holiday, the negative line finally ended that day. However, the US index needs to pay attention to the decline and stop, and pay attention to whether it can further break through and stand firm in the daily watershed in the future.

From a multi-cycle analysis, the price suppresses resistance in the 99 area at the weekly level, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 97.55 position over time. The current price is below this position, so we need to pay attention to further continuation for the time being, but the price stops rising after testing the channel line. In the future, we need to pay attention to further testing the daily resistance performance. At the same time, the price rose after reaching the channel line in the four-hour period. Currently, the price is still above the four-hour period. Today, we are paying attention to the range of 96.80-90. The price is more likely to be treated above this position. Focus on 97.30-97.55 above, and focus on daily resistance as a whole in the future.

The US dollar index has a long range of 96.80-90, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 97.30-97.55

Gold

In terms of gold, the price of gold generally showed an upward trend last Friday, with the highest price rising on the day at 3344.95, and the lowest fell to 3323.47, closing at 3337.02. In response to the fact that gold first gained support during the early trading session last Friday, and then rebounded again, and suppressed after the price reached the daily line and four-hour resistance position upward, the overall volatility was not large due to the impact of the holiday, and the overall volatility continued to be under pressure in the future. After the weekly watershed at the 3311 position below actually broke, we need to pay attention to the pressure in the medium line.

From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. The final price in June is still in an anti-K state, so you still need to be cautious when dealing with the majority. From the weekly level, prices on the weekly line have continued to fluctuate at high levels recently. As time goes by, the weekly watershed is temporarily at 3311. We need to pay attention to further breaking performance in this position in the future. Once the breaking down, the medium-term decline will begin. According to the daily level, the price last week was under pressure as the author said, as further upward tests on the daily resistance. Currently, the daily resistance is at 3345 and 3338. The price continues to be under pressure under this area. According to the four-hour level, the price will support the resistance after falling below the four-hour support last Thursday. Currently, the four-hour resistance is at the 3338 position. This position resonates with the daily line, and we will pay attention to the pressure in this area in the future. From one hour to today's morning session, the price pierces the weekly support. In the future, we need to pay attention to the actual breaking of the weekly support. After the actual breaking, we will continue further. If there is no closing at this position, we will pay attention to the volatile decline.

Gold 3338-3340 is empty in the range, defense is $10, target 3320-3311-3280-3246

European and the United States

European and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States generally showed an upward trend last Friday. The price fell to 1.1750 on the day and rose to 1.1787 on the spot and closed at 1.1772 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets last Friday, the price first corrected upward during the early trading session, and then stopped fluctuating after testing the key resistance area. Although the positive line finally ended, further pressure performance still needs to be paid attention to in the future.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the perspective of the monthly line level, Europe and the United States are supported at 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated, and the monthly line ends with a big positive, so long-term bulls are still relatively large. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1450 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, as time goes by, we need to focus on the 1.1680 regional watershed, and the temporary band above this position is treated more frequently. From the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to the resistance in the 1.1780-90 area. This position is the key to the short-term trend. The price will continue to be short-term. We will pay attention to further testing the daily support area in the future. We will pay attention to the 1.0730-1.0680 area in the short term.

Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1780-90, defense is 40 points, target 1.0730-1.0680

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Monday, July 7, 2025

①To be determined China's June foreign exchange reserves

②14:00 Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate

③14:00 UK June Halifax quarter Adjusted house price index monthly rate

④16:30 Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index

⑤17:00 Eurozone May retail sales monthly rate

⑥22:00 US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and www.xmtraders.communication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and is not used as a basis for placing an order.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold is expected to fall in the medium-term after breaking the weekly support, and Europe and the United States pay attention to high-level suppression". It is carefully www.xmtraders.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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