OPEC+ agrees to increase production beyond expectations, countries will receive Trump's tariff letters, whether gold prices can stick to the 3330 mark

Basic news

On Monday (July 7, Beijing time), spot gold was traded near $3,330/ounce. US President Trump's tax cut bill cleared the last obstacle in Congress last Thursday. The United States began sending letters to countries last Friday, specifying the tariff rates faced by goods imported to the United States by these countries, adding uncertainty to the market. US crude oil traded near $66.12/barrel. OPEC+ eight core member countries agreed to increase daily oil production by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding the previous market expectations of 411,000 barrels.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks shortened trading hours on Thursday and trade volume shrank. U.S. stocks rose last Thursday, hitting record highs, with chip maker Nvidia's market value approaching $4 trillion, and the unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs report has excited investors, who are slim about the U.S. rate cut this month.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs, rising for the third consecutive week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.41%, close to its all-time high.

Chip maker Nvidia rose 1.3% to a market value of $3.89 trillion. The www.xmtraders.company is about to surpass Apple to become the world's highest-capitalized www.xmtraders.company in history.

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at ManGroup in New York, said: "We are going through a real irrational boom; the stock market is very tilted to optimism. But there is some evidence. I think people are relieved to some extent because of the employment reportNot as weak as expected. ”

She said the rise was driven by retail investors who basically ignored the upcoming inflationary pressure and tariff uncertainty, and "focused on the real thing, which is today's employment report."

The S&P 500 rose 0.83% to 6279.36 points; the Nasdaq rose 1.02% to 20,601.10 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.77% to 44,828.53 points.

Data showed that non-farm jobs rose by 147,000 in June, 33% more than the 110,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June, better than expected 4.3%.

Traders quickly ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and according to CME’s Fedwatch tool, the market expects a 25 basis point cut in September at 68%, down from 74% a week ago.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump General under Republican lawmakers The unified massive tax cuts and spending bill overcomes the party’s disagreement over its costs.

Non-partisan analysts say the bill is expected to increase the U.S. current debt of $3.4 trillion over the next decade.

Sharp tax cuts and increased government spending can stimulate demand in the economy. This could increase inflationary pressure, especially as the economy shows strong signs, such as the latest jobs report.

F/mInvestments CEO Alex Morris said, “Some of the data such as the jobs report are positive and attractive, but if we take a step back, the situation is less optimistic.” Last week, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the Dow rose 2.3%. The Russell 2000 small cap index rose 3.41%.

Morris said, “It’s a little confusing and it feels like the last bull market that has been really summed up before. ”

U.S. stock market closed early at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. U.S. stock exchanges accumulated 10.85 billion shares, far lower than the average daily trading volume of 17.82 billion shares over the past 20 full trading days.

Gold market

Gold prices rose 0.5% last Friday to $3343.94 per ounce. Last week, gold prices rose about 2.2%. U.S. President Trump's tax cut bill was on Thursday Congress cleared the last hurdle, perpetuating his 2017 tax cuts, would fund his plan to www.xmtraders.combat immigration and realize the new tax cuts he promised during the 2024 campaign.

Marex analyst Edward Meir said: "There is no progress in the U.S. fiscal situation in this bill, so in the long run, it should be bad for the dollar and gold. ”

The cross-party Congressional Budget Office estimates, the legislation will increase the $36.2 trillion debt by another $3.4 trillion in ten years. The dollar index <.DXY> fell for the second consecutive week, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

Trump said the United States began sending letters to countries last Friday, specifying the tariff rates that goods imported into the United States by these countries will face. Meir said the dollar could weaken and gold could rise if Trump sticks to the July 9 tariff deadline.

At the same time, labor market data showed that in June, US www.xmtraders.companies added 147,000 new jobs, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The data supports the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged.

Demand for physical gold in major Asian markets remained sluggish last week because rising prices suppressed consumer interest, while discounts in India narrowed due to reduced imports.

Spot silver remained steady at $36.83 per ounce; platinum rose 0.9% to $1,382.63; palladium fell 0.4% to $1,132.87. Oil market

Oil prices fell slightly last Friday, with U.S. holiday trading calm, and the market focused on the weekend's OPEC+ meeting and the possibility of member states' decision to increase production.

Brent crude oil futures fell 0.73%, with settlement price at $68.30 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil fell $66.41, a drop of 0.88%. Affected by the US Independence Day holiday, market trading is quiet.

The weekly balance of the two indicators will rise, with Brent crude rising about 0.6%, and U.S. crude rising about 1.4%. OPEC+ eight core member states agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding the market expectations of 411,000 barrels. This is the fourth consecutive month that the organization has increased production, after a monthly increase of 411,000 barrels from May to July, and has recovered a total of about 1.23 million barrels per day. The decision to increase production is led by Saudi Arabia, aiming to use the peak summer demand season to expand market share and accelerate the release of previously restricted production capacity. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futuresgroup, said, "The market appears to have some profit-taking on Friday due to concerns that OPEC will increase production by more than expected." News website Axios reported on Thursday that the United States plans to hold talks with Iran on its nuclear program in Oslo next week. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic said last Thursday that Iran will continue to abide by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and its safeguards agreement.

U.S. President Trump said last Thursday that he would meet with the Iranian representative “when necessary” even if the United States imposes new sanctions on Iran’s oil trade.

At the same time, as the 90-day tariff moratorium is about to end, uncertainty in U.S. tariff policy has once again become the focus of people's attention.

Barclays said last Thursday that the bank will beBrent crude oil price forecasts rose by $6 to $72 per barrel in 2025, raising expectations for 2026 to $10 to $70 per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell against other major currencies last Friday after the iconic tax cut bill promoted by President Trump was finally passed and countries face pressure to reach a trade deal with the United States.

Last Thursday, U.S. employment data was stronger than expected, delaying the time when the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates, and the dollar rebounded at one point. But the dollar index, which tracks the dollar's exchange rate against the main www.xmtraders.competitive currency, will fall for the second straight week.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's "Big and U.S. bill, which includes spending and tax cuts, is expected to increase the country's $3.4 trillion in debt by $36.2 trillion. Trump is expected to sign the bill last Friday to make it law.

As the United States is closed due to Independence Day, people's attention has turned to Trump's July 9 deadline, which will impose www.xmtraders.comprehensive tariffs on countries such as Japan that have not yet reached a trade agreement.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at SwissquoteBank, said: "The preference for the dollar is weakening for two reasons: First, concerns about the U.S. bonds are heating up, and second, preference for the U.S. bonds are at risk. Another reason is that the tariff situation and trade disruptions will have a negative impact on U.S. economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may not necessarily support the economy when inflation risks rise."

The U.S. dollar index hit its worst first-half performance since 1973, as Trump's chaotic introduction of www.xmtraders.comprehensive tariffs has intensified concerns about the security of the U.S. economy and U.S. bonds.

The dollar has fallen more than 6% since the U.S. announced tariffs on the world on April 2, with a low of more than three years against the euro and pound earlier last week.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 96.92, reducing its gain of 0.4% on Thursday. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.178, which is expected to achieve a weekly increase of 0.5%.

The yen climbed 0.4% against the US dollar to 144.32; the Swiss franc rose 0.2% against the US dollar to 0.793.

The employment report released last Thursday showed that non-farm jobs increased by 147,000 in June, far higher than the 110,000 forecast by economists in a Reuters survey, which gave investors a little relief to worry about the health of the U.S. economy.

According to CME's Fedwatch tool, the market expects that the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting is currently 95.3%, up from 76.2% on July 2. Economists still expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates again until September or even later.

International News

Lee Hezbollah Leader: Will continue to resist Israel and never give up possessing weapons

On July 6, local time, Lebanon Hezbollah leader Qasim delivered a speech, reiteratingLebanon will continue to resist Israel and said it will never give up possessing weapons. Qasim condemned Israel's continued aggression and stressed that the enemy continued to occupy Lebanese territory, which was clearly in violation of the Lebanese ceasefire agreement. Qasim said, "I will never succumb to this aggression" and "decided to resist." He reiterated his firm refusal to normalize relations with Israel. Qasim also responded to the demands of the United States and Israel to pressure Hezbollah to give up weapons, especially missile depots, saying that "weapons are the cornerstone of defensive forces and will never give up."

Zakharova: The United States postponed the third round of negotiations with Russia

On July 6, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova said that the United States "sponsored" the original third round of Russia-US consultations, which aims to resolve a series of "stimulus factors" in the relationship between the two countries. Zakharova said: Despite this, Russia still observes signals that the United States intends to restore bilateral relations. Zakharova pointed out: "The United States has not cancelled the negotiations, it is just postponed. The two sides are still in contact at present." The first two rounds of consultations were held in Istanbul in February and April this year.

Shigeru Ishiba: Will not www.xmtraders.compromise easily in trade negotiations

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday that he would not "compromise easily" in negotiations with Washington. "We will not www.xmtraders.compromise easily. This is why negotiations take time and are difficult."

South Korea's international flight passenger volume hit a new high in the first half of the year

According to statistics released by the Ministry of Land, Incheon International Airport www.xmtraders.commune and South Korea Airport www.xmtraders.commune on the 6th, the number of passengers on international flights at major airports in South Korea from January to June this year was 46.029842 million, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year, exceeding the historical high (45.56 million) set in the same period in 2019.

"OPEC+" increased production and seized market share. Experts said that the probability of international oil prices falling has increased

On the 5th local time, some member states of the "OPEC+" www.xmtraders.composed of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries held an online meeting. Finally, representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman who attended the meeting decided to increase the average daily output of 548,000 barrels of crude oil from August. Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China, said in an exclusive interview that although increasing production may lead to a decline in international oil prices, increasing production reflects "OPEC+"'s determination to regain market share from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries.

Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party"

On July 5 local time, Elon Musk posted on a social media platform that the "American Party" was established on the same day to return freedom to the people. Recently, Musk and US President Trump have had differences on the "Big and US" tax and expenditure bill. On June 30, Musk criticized the so-called "big and American" tax and expenditure bill that Trump pushed and stated that if the bill passes, the "American Party" will be established the next day. On July 4th local time, US President Trump signed the "big andThe US Tax and Expenditure Act made it effective. Previously, the bill had been passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 votes in favor and 214 votes against. It is understood that Musk first proposed this idea on June 5. In the post of announcing the establishment of the "American Party", some netizens asked whether his new party would participate in the 2026 midterm elections or the 2028 presidential elections, Musk replied, "Next year."

The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5% Asia continued to remain in the expansion range

The China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced on June 6 that the global manufacturing purchasing managers said Number. Data shows that the index is still in a contraction range, but has risen slightly for two consecutive months, reflecting a rebound in global economic recovery. The global manufacturing purchasing managers index in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and rose month-on-month for two consecutive months. Under the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the continued existence of geopolitical conflicts, the global economic recovery is still facing downward pressure. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report lowers global economic growth expectations from 2.7% in January this year to 2.3%. He Hui, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement, said that global manufacturing procurement The manager's index has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months, reflecting that the global economy's recovery resistance is still relatively large. Countries should stabilize economic growth from the perspectives of improving the resilience of the supply chain, increasing technological innovation and promoting diversified market layout. At the same time, they should continue to firmly promote multilateral trade cooperation and build a stable and sustainable economic growth path. In June, the Asian manufacturing purchasing manager's index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Asian manufacturing industry continued to remain in the expansion range, which has better supported the recovery of the global economy, and major countries in the region have positive changes.

Domestic News

my country is under construction The largest thermal power plant has been put into production for a single unit of 6 billion kWh

At present, the central and eastern my country is experiencing the strongest high temperature process this year. It drives rapid growth in electricity load. On July 4, the country's largest power load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, a record high. According to the National Energy Group, the largest thermal power plant under construction in my country, Unit 8 of the Beilun Power Plant in Zhejiang was successfully put into production today after 168 hours of full load trial operation, ensuring that electricity is used for high temperature weather.

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